EUR/USD remains above 1.1600, sentiment improves due to upcoming US-Russia meet
- EUR/USD appreciates as market sentiment improves ahead of the upcoming United States–Russia meeting on Friday.
- Trump and Putin are set to meet to seek a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
- Traders are awaiting US inflation data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
EUR/USD edges higher after registering losses in the previous two successive sessions, trading around 1.1620 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair may further appreciate as the Euro (EUR) could receive support amid improving market sentiment ahead of the upcoming United States (US)-Russia meeting on Friday.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15, with an aim to finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is reportedly not expected to participate.
The European Central Bank (ECB) concluded its latest easing cycle in July after delivering eight rate cuts over the past year, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022 to support slowing Eurozone growth. However, some market participants still anticipate the possibility of another ECB cut before the year ends.
Traders are expected to focus on the US consumer inflation data, due later in the North American session, as it could shape the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise 0.2%, slightly below June’s 0.3%, while the annual rate is projected to accelerate for the third consecutive month to 2.8%. Core CPI is also anticipated to pick up to 0.3%.
Markets are now pricing in approximately 84% odds of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting, down from 90% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.