WTI recovers above $62.00 as traders await US-Russia peace talks
- WTI price rebounds to near $62.30 in Thursday’s early European session.
- Oil traders await Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin for fresh catalysts.
- An unexpected increase in US crude oil supplies might cap the WTI’s upside.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $62.30 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The WTI recovers from a two-month low as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss the Ukraine issue.
Trump on Wednesday warned that Russia will face “very severe consequences” if Putin doesn’t agree to end the war in Ukraine during their meeting on Friday. The uncertainty surrounding US-Russia peace talks could provide some support to the WTI price in the near term.
"The uncertainty of U.S.-Russia peace talks continues to add a bullish risk premium given Russian oil buyers could face more economic pressure," said Rystad Energy in a client note.
Rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut rates in the September meeting could provide some support to the black gold, as it typically boosts oil demand. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in nearly a 94% chance of a 25 basis point (bps) cut next month, up from an 85% possibility before the inflation data release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On the other hand, US crude inventories unexpectedly rose last week. This report signaled a weaker demand and could weigh on the WTI price. According to the Energy Information Administration, crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending August 8 climbed by 3.036 million barrels, compared to a fall of 3.029 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 800,000 barrels.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.