USD/JPY stalls below 145 on tepid wage data – BBH

USD/JPY is holding under key resistance at 145.00, BBH FX analysts report.

Japan’s pay gains hit 34-year high, but BoJ still patient

"Japan's largest labor union group, Rengo, secured a 5.25% average pay gain for 2025. That’s the highest level since 1991 and follows an average increase of 5.10% in 2024 and 3.58% in 2023. Still, the pay hike was more modest than the preliminary 5.46% reported in March and below the 6.09% increase members had sought."

"The Bank of Japan will not be rushing to resume raising rates, limiting JPY upside. The swaps market is pricing-in 60% odds of a 25bps rate hike by year-end and a total of 50bps of tightening to 1.00% over the next three years."

Jul 4, 2025

USD/JPY: More likely to trade in a range of 144.15/145.25 – UOB Group

Instead of continuing to rise, US Dollar (USD) is more likely to trade in a range of 144.15/145.25 against Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD has likely entered a range trading phase, probably between 143.50 and 145.95, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD/CNH: Likely to consolidate between 7.1600 and 7.1750 – UOB Group

USD is likely to consolidate between 7.1600 and 7.1750. In the longer run, the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 7.1550 and 7.1850, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.