USD gains as markets eye US private-sector data – BBH

US Dollar (USD) is building on last week’s advances. This week’s set of US private-sector data will offer clues about the employment and inflation backdrop. Positive labor data would fuel further USD gains above the August high, while softer figures can trigger a partial USD pullback. Check-out our Drivers for the Week for all the details, BBH FX analysts report.

Crude prices drift amid OPEC+ production pause

"Crude oil prices are drifting lower despite OPEC+ plans to pause output hikes next year. OPEC+ matched expectations and agreed to raise output by 137k barrels a day in December. Beyond December, OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to pause the increase in crude oil production in the first three months of 2026. The widening glut in crude oil remains a major headwind for crude oil prices. According to the IEA, global oil balances have seen a 1.9 mb/d surplus since the start of the year and are expected to reach a record surplus of 3.3 mb/d in 2026."

"US October ISM manufacturing takes the spotlight today (3:00pm London, 10:00am New York). The headline index is projected at 49.5 vs. 49.1 in September, consistent with a slower contraction in manufacturing activity. Watch the prices paid and employment sub-indexes for signs that inflation risks are receding and job losses moderating."

"Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the economy and monetary policy (7:00pm London, 2:00pm New York). This is her first speech on the economic outlook since the Trump administration’s attempt to have her removed from her post in late August. Ahead of her speech, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (non-voter) takes part in a moderated discussion (5:00pm London, 12:00pm New York). According to Fed Chair Jay Powell, “there's a growing chorus” supporting skipping a cut ahead. Indeed, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack (both 2026 FOMC voters) said they would have preferred to hold rates steady last week."